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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."